Idaho Falls, Idaho (KIFI) — Idaho could be heading into a tight water year after what experts say may be one of the lowest snowpack seasons on record.
The Idaho Department of Water Resources say a warmer-than-normal winter caused much of the state’s precipitation to fall as rain instead of snow, significantly reducing the region’s natural water storage.
“Probably the lowest snowpack in the history of Idaho,” said David Hoekema, a hydrologist with the agency. “We don’t have much snowpack, we’re not going to get a lot of runoff out of the mountains,”
Hoekema said the Boise Basin faces about a 50% chance of water shortages this season. In the Upper Snake River, the current supply is about 11% below typical demand, and a hot, dry summer would deepen the shortfall.
He stressed that 2026 is not yet one of Idaho’s worst drought years on record, thanks largely to stored water in reservoirs. But with limited snowmelt to refill those systems, the real concern is going into next year, when many reservoirs could be heavily depleted.
Some regions are already bracing for severe cutbacks. The Big Wood Canal Company is projected to have roughly half of its normal water supply, Hoekema said. In the Salmon Falls Tract south of Twin Falls, poor runoff and a reservoir sitting around 13% of capacity mean irrigation deliveries may have to be shut off as early as late May or mid‑June.
Around Idaho Falls and Pocatello, Hoekema expects growers to feel the squeeze as the season advances.
“We’ll get through the year, but it’s going to be really tight, especially if the summer gets hot,” Hoekema said.
Hoekema noted that recent years have already pushed Idaho’s temperatures toward record territory and said this water year may challenge a long‑standing 1934 temperature record.
At higher elevations, an intense heat wave at the end of March accelerated snowmelt by nearly two months, Snow that typically starts melting around mid‑May began disappearing in March, erasing a key buffer that usually carries irrigators into early summer before reservoirs are tapped.
Farmers are already adjusting. The irrigation season officially began April 1, but many canals are delaying diversions or working to deliver water as efficiently as possible. As natural flows drop and irrigators switch to using stored water, Hoekema said producers will need to watch their “storage accounts” closely and prioritize their most valuable crops.
“They’re going to have to really start watching that, and make sure they get the water to the high‑value crops,” he said. “They might have to cut off water supplies to alfalfa earlier this year than they typically would, or maybe have some other low‑value crops or fallow land… so they can stretch their water supplies.”
The picture is bleak across much of the West. Hoekema said Idaho has fared somewhat better than many neighboring states because of its high‑elevation mountain ranges, which captured at least some snow. But he described the broader region as facing “one of the worst droughts” in recent memory, with Oregon, Washington, Utah, Nevada and parts of California and Colorado struggling under low snowpack and heat.
“Besides Montana, we’re doing the best in a bad deal,” Hoekema said.
Residents, he added, have a role to play in stretching supplies — especially in a year when water managers want to keep as much water as possible available for agriculture, a major driver of Idaho’s economy.
In normal years, lawn irrigation supplied by canals can help recharge the aquifer. In a drought, though, Hoekema urged homeowners to cut back.
“In a drought year, you want to do everything you can to reduce irrigation to the minimum so that we can get it to the farms,” he said. “It’s probably not a bad idea to let your lawn brown out a little this year and just get water to where we need it for the economy.”
The drought is also expected to affect hydropower. Hoekema said Idaho typically relies heavily on hydroelectric dams for electricity — roughly three‑quarters of the state’s power in a typical year — but reduced river flows mean utilities will likely need to lean more on alternative sources, especially if the summer is hotter than normal.
Water officials are now watching the skies, hoping for a cooler, wetter pattern and a stronger snow year to follow. Without it, they warn, the tight water supplies facing East Idaho this season could turn into more severe shortages next year.
